21/05/2020

Visgraf launches project on visualizing Covid data.

Since the Covid-19 situation worsened in Brazil and around the world, graphs showing the evolution of the disease and its consequences have been widely disseminated to the population, interested in visualizing possible scenarios for the pandemic. When well executed, data visualization about the new coronavirus can assist authorities in creating public policies and raise awareness in society, influencing its behavior.

Recognizing the essential role it plays in communication, Visgraf (IMPA's Computer Graphics Laboratory) is launching "Coronaviz: visualization in times of Coronavirus ," an initiative that will address the topic from the perspective of mathematics and information design through a portal, technical reports, and scientific articles.

“Practically all the content in the media today is about this situation, because it affects the whole world. I realized that the way they show the evolution of the disease sometimes causes confusion among people. Since at Visgraf we have collaborators from different backgrounds, specialized in media, design, etc., I thought we had to take some initiative in this regard,” says Luiz Velho, lead researcher at the laboratory.

Conducted in collaboration with Visgraf research assistant Júlia Giannella, the project stands out as one of the first to create content in Portuguese about visualizing Covid-19 data. "Most of the literature available today is in English," notes the designer.

Figura 1: gráfico publicado na revista The Economist.

In this first stage, the researchers focused on clarifying some important mathematical concepts, such as exponential growth and dynamical systems; and analyzed successful examples of data visualization, such as the graphs from The New York Times and The Economics magazine (Figure 1) that went viral, popularizing the term curve flattening and alerting society to the possibility of hospital networks collapsing.

“The pandemic has made it more evident how difficult it is for the population to interpret certain types of visualization. A poorly done visualization generates distrust in the reader, while good examples help to encourage civic practice in society and promote social isolation, a measure that science considers, until now, the most effective in curbing cases,” comments Júlia.

The recurring use of the exponential function in graphs estimating cases of virus infection is contested by the pair, who recommend the logarithmic function for better visualization. “When the general public looks at a graph with that line rising to the sky, they know it's something that's growing rapidly and is dangerous, but they don't fully understand it. Using the logarithmic function instead of the exponential one, we linearize the data, making it easier to understand,” points out the lead researcher of the laboratory.

The project also highlights the responsible use of data visualization at a time when the technique is in vogue. “Never before have so many graphs been produced. People sometimes end up doing more of the same, and not in a very responsible way,” points out Júlia. Graphs comparing countries and municipalities are common, but they need to respect basic data normalization parameters, using the same unit of comparison. “The responsible use of data visualization is everyone's responsibility: authorities, the press, and science,” clarifies the designer.

Given the constantly changing scenario brought about by the virus, the project is still open-ended, but its next dissemination topic has already been defined: data collection. “How do we collect data? How do we store it? How do we identify reliable data? These are some of the questions we will answer,” says the Visgraf researcher, who is already in talks with potential collaborators for the initiative.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the future being a major challenge at this time, Luiz Velho is optimistic. “Scientists will develop new ways of doing science, governments will learn new forms of governance, the media will learn new ways of communicating. If we deal with the situation intelligently, we can learn a great deal as human beings.”