25/01/2021

Using math, retirees won lottery prizes.

Foto: Pixabay

When it comes to lotteries, there's no shortage of websites selling foolproof tips and surefire formulas for marking the winning numbers on your ticket. Ultimately, is winning the jackpot a matter of strategy or luck? Generally, most bets have virtually the same chance of winning. But a case in Michigan, USA, proved to be an outlier. A mathematics graduate from Western Michigan University, American Jerry Selbee found a loophole in the system and used mathematics to win US $ 8 million (equivalent to R$40 million) in the lottery over more than a decade without committing any fraud.

Jerry and his wife, Marge, were living a quiet life in the small town of Evart, Michigan (USA), when they were struck by a valuable discovery. Two years after retiring, Jerry was passing by the convenience store he had sold shortly before when he saw a leaflet explaining the rules of the Winfall lottery game. His mathematical reasoning kicked in and, in three minutes, he discovered the game's potential.

With no history of gambling, the retiree gathered paper and pencil to test his formula that would allow him to always win more money than he invested in the Winfall game. Noticing her husband's heightened level of concentration, Marge, who was making coffee, asked: "What are you working on? Is something wrong?". To which Jerry replied: "I think we won the lottery".

In Winfall, bettors had to choose six numbers between 1 and 49. Those who guessed two, three, four, or five numbers received a prize that increased in value the more numbers were matched. To win the top prize, of at least US $ 2 million, it was necessary to match all six numbers. The unique aspect of Winfall was its own system of accumulating prizes. If there was no winner of the grand prize, the amounts grew until they reached US$5 million. This amount was then used for prizes in the next draw, regardless of whether or not there was a winner of all six numbers.

In other words, each time the jackpot reached $ 5 million, the probability of someone winning more with four or five correct numbers increased considerably. Jerry noticed that this occurred within a period of about three months, where his chances lay. Using basic arithmetic, he discovered that if he bet $ 1,100 on one of these situations, mathematically he would win about $1,900 by adding up the tickets with fewer correct numbers. A gain of just over 80%.

In the first test, Jerry bought $ 3,600 worth of tickets and won $ 6,300. Three months later, he repeated the bet following the same strategy, this time with an investment of $8,000, and won almost double. "I just couldn't, I just couldn't understand how nobody had thought of this before," the mathematician stated.

Realizing the potential of their discovery, the couple decided to professionalize the business. They founded GS Investment Strategies, a company that developed a betting system so that friends and relatives could participate in the venture. By 2005, there were already 25 bettors in the group, and profits could reach up to US$8,000 per round, all within the law. Probably not by chance, the state of Michigan decided to shut down this lottery, citing a low number of bets.

In 2012, an investigative report by the Boston Globe newspaper ended the Selbees' prosperous times. The journalists discovered that two groups were profiting from the majority of Cash Winfall bets: the Michigan couple and some mathematics students from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who had discovered the same loophole seven years earlier.

Having earned $8 million, the Selbees stated that they invested the money in renovating their house and helping their six children, 14 grandchildren, and 10 great-grandchildren with educational expenses. They continue to live in the same city and, in 2019, sold the rights to their electrifying story to Hollywood.

Source: Época Magazine