03/07/2020

Study predicts 160,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Brazil by October.

Foto: Tomaz Silva/ Agência Brasil

Reproduction from the IMPA Science & Mathematics blog, from O Globo, coordinated by Claudio Landim.

A colleague once told me, during a marital crisis, that math is simple, but life is difficult. This comment accurately reflects the current situation. While we are beginning to understand the dynamics of COVID-19, the reasons for easing social distancing measures remain inscrutable.

The graphs and tables of the number of deaths from Covid-19 in the cities and states of the country are easily interpreted. Below, the daily number and the average, over seven-day periods, of deaths from Covid in Brazil from February 15 to June 30 [1].

We are slowly heading towards an almost literal decimation of the Brazilian population. According to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, in October, more than 160,000 Brazilians will have died from Covid [2], almost 0.1% of the population.

Brazil is already among the states most affected by the virus. If we exclude nations with small populations, such as San Marino, Andorra or Sint Maarten, Brazil is in twelfth position on the list of countries with the highest number of deaths per million inhabitants, as illustrated in the table below [1]. The number of new infections in Brazil continues to grow. The number of deaths seems to have stabilized in the country [2], as well as in the municipality and state of Rio [3, 4]. It is difficult to understand, in this context, the relaxation of social distancing measures. These measures were imposed in mid-March when the average number of daily deaths was less than five in the state. How can their easing be justified when the average number of deaths in the city is above 20?

The virus is circulating in the city and will multiply with greater virulence in the coming weeks.

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