Peak of epidemic expected on July 14th, with no lockdown.

Foto: Rovena Rosa/ Agência Brasil

Reproduction from the IMPA Science & Mathematics blog, from O Globo, coordinated by Claudio Landim.

Claudio Landim

The first bulletin on Mathematical Epidemiology from the School of Applied Mathematics of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV-EMAp) projects that, maintaining social distancing at the current level of 50%, the peak of the epidemic should occur in mid-July. If the lockdown policy is not changed, in September the number of new daily cases will be similar to that of today. To control and reduce the spread of the epidemic, it would be necessary to increase social distancing to 70%.

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Two mathematicians from Unicamp, Paulo Silva and Claudia Sagastizábal, have made available a platform , updated daily, that presents the average replication rate of the virus in some cities and regions of the country (the average number of people infected by each infected individual). This rate allows predicting the number of new cases and deaths.

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