05/10/2020

Mathematics is an ally in the fight against future pandemics.

Foto: Dan Marchesin tenta viabilizar melhores tomadas de decisão e estratégia em pandemia

The rapid spread of Covid-19, the alarming number of deaths caused by the disease, and the limited knowledge about the virus so far are some of the challenges Dan Marchesin has faced in recent months. The IMPA researcher and founder of the institute's Fluid Dynamics Laboratory is part of a research group led by epidemiologist Claudio Struchiner, which seeks to decipher future behaviors of this and other pandemics. The goal is to enable better decision-making and strategies, steps that are scientifically outlined using mathematics in service of health.

The researchers joined forces after contact with some of Marchesin's former students who wanted to contribute in some way to the fight against the pandemic. After watching an online lecture by ICMC-USP researcher Tiago Pereira, who is also part of Struchiner's working group, Marchesin decided to participate. "I thought it was perfect because Struchiner is an expert in epidemiology with a master's degree from IMPA, and he would be able to combine the language of mathematics with the objectives of health," he said in an interview with Faperj .

Among the research group's work strategies are mass testing studies to determine the percentage of the population already infected with the coronavirus and monitoring families in the Maré favela in Rio de Janeiro. They want to verify the existence of reinfection cases and estimate how long infected individuals remain immune, fundamental issues for dealing with Covid-19 in the future. The expectation is that the models developed can also guide vaccination strategies and make vaccine trials simpler.

Foto: Tiago Pereira e Claudio Struchiner também integram grupo de pesquisa

Marchesin believes it will be necessary to create a data collection network like those used for weather forecasting to help predict future epidemics. The researcher warns that climate change directly affects the epidemiological landscape and draws attention to the consequences of the occupation of biomes such as the Amazon. This has contributed to the imbalance and facilitated contact between viruses and their hosts, including humans. "I would say that I am learning about this very important new area, integrated with an even larger one, which is mathematical biology," he considers.

The researchers hope to provide technical and scientific support during the pandemic and apply the strategies to evaluate the impact of the measures adopted. In addition, they are also working on planning the containment of the epidemic, minimizing the chances of the situation worsening again.