14/05/2019

Mathematical criminology is the topic of a lecture series at IMPA.

Did you know that mathematics can contribute to reducing crime rates? In Rio de Janeiro, for example, data analysis combined with increased policing and troop motivation reduced vehicle thefts by 30% in a group of neighborhoods in the North Zone in 2018.

The survey, authored by Joana Monteiro, director of the Institute of Public Security (ISP) from 2015 to 2018 and coordinator of the Research Center of the Public Ministry, will be presented at the Lecture Series on Mathematical and Statistical Models in Criminology, this Wednesday (15), at the headquarters of the Institute of Pure and Applied Mathematics (IMPA).

Organized by the Laboratory for Computational Analysis and Modeling in Applied Sciences (Lamca) at IMPA, the event brings together renowned researchers in the field, including one of the pioneers, Jorge Mateu, from the University of Jaume I, in Spain.

“The use of mathematics in criminology has been growing in recent years, as more data becomes available and there is also the capacity to process it. This can have a major impact,” notes Jorge Zubelli, coordinator of Lamca.

The program will open at 9:30 am with Mateu, who will provide an overview of the mathematical and statistical methods for predicting crime risks, already considered in policing policies.

Next, Eduardo Massad, from the School of Applied Mathematics (EMAp) at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), will show how models of infectious diseases mimic the role of convicted criminals in contaminating individuals not yet involved in crime. In his study, he reports how crime-inducing parameters are treated mathematically and can help policymakers.

In Rio, mathematical criminology is already being adopted, according to data from a study by economist Joana Monteiro, who is also a professor at the Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (Ebape) of FGV. In her lecture, the economist details how the analysis of crime data can help reduce crime in Rio.

In the afternoon, Wenceslao González-Manteiga, from the University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain), will present research on spatiotemporal patterns of data on shootings in the Rio Metropolitan Region collected by the Fogo Cruzado app throughout 2017. The study was conducted with Zubelli and Isabel Fuentes-Santos (Marine Research Institute/Spain).

Jorge Luis Poco Medina, from EMAp/FGV, will close the program with a presentation on CrimAnalyzer, a data visualization tool that allows for the analysis of crime patterns in regions of São Paulo.