13/12/2022

'Is it possible to predict the future?', Folha asks Imbuzeiro.

Oracles, mathematics and meteorology were the subject of an article in Folha de S. Paulo , last Friday (9), which interviewed IMPA researcher Roberto Imbuzeiro. The report questions the ability to predict the future based on probability, Imbuzeiro's area of expertise, meteorology and games such as tarot and cowrie shells.

The article tells the story of Miguel, 12 years old, who participated in a "World Cup betting pool" with his school friends in São Bernardo do Campo. To compete for the prize of the game – a combo meal worth R$ 2 and a Dolly soda – Miguel bet on Brazil as the big winner of the World Cup.

Speaking to the reporting team, Imbuzeiro argued that, unfortunately, it's not possible to guess the champion so easily. "Neither mathematics nor any human endeavor can [do that]," the researcher explained.

But, according to the mathematician, it's possible to try. "With mathematics, we can find patterns and predict what will happen if things continue as they are," he explained to Folha.

Imbuzeiro also stated that when people bet on "World Cup pools," their predictions are generally based on the historical performance of the teams, including the team's performance during defense and attack, as well as whether or not the players participated in the matches.

"We don't give certainty, but we give a probability. Chance, despite seeming chaotic, has a structure behind it," he added.

The article touched on other aspects of forecasting, such as meteorology and tarot and shell divination. Access the full report at this link.