22/02/2019

And the Oscar goes to… Mathematics has the answer.

Ben Zauzmer, a mathematician who graduated from Harvard University (USA) in 2015, became famous for successfully predicting—with the help of an algorithm—the winners of the last seven Academy Awards.
Last year, he correctly predicted 20 winners out of 24 categories, noting that he didn't have the data to calculate who would win in three of them, meaning he only got one guess wrong. But Zauzmer isn't some kind of cinematic fortune teller. He relies on a complex—and powerful—mathematical model to calculate the percentage chance of nominees winning the biggest film awards.

At 26, the mathematician works as an analyst for the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team. Using data and statistics, he helps the club assemble its team and win games, much like the nerdy character from the movie "Moneyball"—remember him?

According to predictions by the expert, who writes for "The New York Times" and "The Hollywood Reporter," the favorite in the race for the 2019 Best Picture Oscar is "Roma," directed by Alfonso Cuarón (32.6%), followed by "BlacKkKlansman" (17.58%) and "Green Book," starring Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali.
The Best Director award is likely to go to Cuarón, who leads the race with a 65% chance. Yorgos Lanthimos, for "The Favourite," and Spike Lee, for "BlacKkKlansman," can still win the statuette with 11.6% and 11.5% chances, respectively.

According to the mathematician's predictions, the Best Actor award should go to Rami Malek for "Bohemian Rhapsody" (74.2%), but with Christian Bale for "Vice" (17.6%) close behind. The Best Actress of 2019 is likely to be Glenn Close for "The Wife" (65.2%), but Olivia Colman for "The Favourite" (15.4%) and Lady Gaga for "A Star Is Born" (14.3%) are also in contention.

Mahershala Ali, from "Green Book," is a strong contender for the Best Supporting Actor award, with an 89.6% chance, followed by Richard E. Grant for "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" (2.9%). The Best Supporting Actress category is the most competitive. Zauzmer shows Regina King, from "If Beale Street Could Talk," leading the race with 44.4%, followed by Rachel Weisz, from "The Favourite" (23.6%), and Amy Adams, from "Vice," with a 13.6% chance of winning the Oscar.

The original screenplay award is expected to go to "The Favourite," with 39.8%. Second place goes to "Green Book," with 25.3%. In the adapted screenplay category, "BlacKkKlansman" and "If Beale Street Could Talk" are vying for the Oscar with 35.7% and 27% chances, respectively, according to the mathematician.

"Roma" could win another statuette: Best Foreign Language Film. Cuarón's film has 57.2% of the vote, while "Cold War" has 28.7%. The best animated film of 2019 should be "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse," which has a 61.5% chance, compared to 30.1% for "Isle of Dogs" and 5% for "Incredibles 2." Finally, the song "Shallow," composed by Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper for "A Star Is Born," is the favorite for the Oscar for Best Original Song with 61.7%. In second place is the song "All the Stars," from the film "Black Panther," with 12.9%.
And you? Do you trust mathematics even to choose the biggest award in cinema? On February 2Wednesdays we'll see if Ben Zauzmer "nailed it" again! Place your bets…